Grain Report Friday - 06th January
Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
What price do you want for your grain?
The overseas futures markets sell off appears to have taken a breather.
The market is starting to move back to the other side of the boat; feeling it may have been oversold.
There are a lot of unusual weather events occurring throughout the world, you would be a brave man to continue to sell in this market.
However, there still appears to be no love for soybeans which is off again.
The market is concerned about Chinese demand falling away due to Covid restrictions, as well as world production up 30-35 million tonnes this year, due to Brazil forecast to grow a record bean crop.
Pressure on soybean prices would put pressure on the oilseed complex, potentially flowing to canola seed prices.
Before we throw the toys out of the cot, the forecast for South America is still not great, with Argentina to remain warm and dry for the next 10 days.
Australia is forecast to export 3.2 million tonnes of wheat in January, which will bring total wheat exports up to around 8.6 million tonnes for the October – January period (1st Quarter of the marketing year).
If we maintain the January forecast of around 3 million tonnes of wheat exports for the next 6 months, by the end of July, when the Northern Hemisphere crop hits the market, Australian bulk wheat exports will be around 27 million tonnes.
If we then add container exports, which are forecast to be over 2 million tonnes, then things start to become interesting in some states.
CBH exported a record 2.18 million tonnes of all grain in December and Viterra exported 905,000 of all grains.
Expand that out over a 10-month period and we are looking at 20+ million tonnes from WA and 9+ million from SA (all grains).
If exports are maintained at these levels, demand for product from the grower increases as supply tightens.
Our largest wheat buyers for the 1st Quarter of our marketing year are China (24%), Indonesia (17%) and the Philippines (11%).
These 3 buyers have taken 52% of our wheat exports.
Most importantly we're always here to help!
Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.
Call 1800 000 410 or Email support@cgx.com.au
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