Grain Report Friday - 15th November
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Heavy losses on US grain exchanges as $US continues to strengthen, and weather improves across the northern hemisphere.
Wheat and corn held up on European exchanges, but rapeseed was lower with weakness in global oilseeds. European grain exports are benefitting from a weaker Euro with cargoes booked to Morocco out of mainland Europe currently being executed. Competition from eastern European suppliers has pushed French and German wheat exports out of the Middle East to north Africa. French crop watchers are cutting exports and increasing end stocks due to competition from Black Sea.
Russian wheat offers have lowered in recent weeks despite the Government minimum price cap.
Soybeans much lower as the industry sorts through the implications of a Trump administration. Trump's pick for the EPA is a biofuel opponent whilst soybeans are likely to be front and centre of any trade tensions between the US/China.
Sth American soybean crops are being revised up.
Canadian canola prices were much weaker following losses in global veg oil markets.
Sovecon estimates Russian grain exports for Nov to fall to 4.2mt from 6mt in Oct. Changes are happening to trade flows with much of Russian business shifting to other European suppliers (France and Germany’s harvest was plagued by quality issues due to excessive rain).
Russia’s export quota for Feb to Jun next year could be a third of last year. Russia allows quota free exports for the first half of the year and then restricts exports to ensure domestic supply.
Strategie Grain expects EU wheat plantings to rise by 5% this year as dry weather in recent weeks has allowed planting.
Not much supportive news anywhere there. Need lower prices to encourage increased export activity. We are seeing Russian selling easing and trade flows changing so, it’s happening, but not enough to get the markets attention. US exports out tonight is our key indicator of when demand for wheat outside Europe starts picking up.
Locally a few shorts are appearing in northern feed grain markets with delivered markets up between $20-30/t in the past month, about half the increase is attributable to freight costs with harvest freight at a premium due to the massive chickpea export program. In the South, growers have concentrated on selling canola which is seeing some harvest demand for feed grains with delivered bids up to $20/t better than silo rates. Across in the west, malt barley deliveries are running below average as harvest moves south. On the east coast, after a few concerns with early harvested barley crops with high screenings and low-test weights, quality has improved with most now going Malt or BAR1.
On the wheat protein front, although protein has been a little lower on the heavy crops through sth QLD and nth NSW, the lack of quality issues means that protein spreads will narrow as harvest progresses.
$A back to 64.7USc
BOM most of the heavy rainfall has been in QLD where harvest has mostly finished or east of major cropping areas in NSW. Forecast has more storm rain of 25-50mm for WA and NSW/QLD. Hot weather forecast over the weekend across SA/VIC should bring harvest on.
ASX down another $3/t to $325/t
24/25 Best Bids 14/11
Wheat APW1 $368/t Kwinana (n/c), $341/t Geelong (n/c).
Feed barley $326/t Kwinana (n/c), $310/t Geelong (n/c).
Canola EU $852/t (-13) & non-EU $752/t (-3) Kwinana, EU $813/t (-2) & non-EU $745/t Geelong (-10).
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