Grain Report Friday - 17th January
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Grain markets were softer as US farmers sold corn and soybeans into the recent rally ahead of the start of Trump’s Presidency.
US farmers need the cash after 3yrs of falling farm incomes and are wary that the introduction of tariffs by the Trump administration could lead to retaliatory action that could hinder US grain exports.
Wheat remains lacklustre on weak demand.
Strategie Grains said conditions for winter wheat and barley in the EU were satisfactory. The EU seems to be heading for a bigger cereal crop with wheat plantings estimated to be up 9% after wet weather led to increased crop abandonment last year.
The Middle East and North Africa have been sourcing most of their barley from the Black Sea and are now turning to cheap barley from Argentina. Saudi Arabia, the largest barley importer at 1.2mt during the first quarter of the 2024/25 season, sourced 60% (720,000t) from Russia, 79,400t from Argentina, 120,000t from Australia and 216,000t from EU. They're expected to import 212,738t of Argentine barley this month.
South America weather forecasts are slightly better for weekend rain that will help sustain yields and limit damage from the recent month-long spell of hot & dry weather (limited to southern Brazil and Argentina).
Agroconsult, a Brazilian consultancy, raised its soybean crop to a record 172.4mt, from 172.2mt, ahead of the start of crop tours. It sees the biggest threat to its forecast as excessively wet conditions in central Brazil delaying harvest.
Canadian canola futures dropped sharply after the USDA published an interim rule for biofuel crops that left out canola. US imports of canola oil for use in biofuels have been a key source of demand for Canada. Oilseeds continue to be volatile and sensitive to changes in government policies on trade and biofuels. Expect the US to reshape biofuel policies to support corn and soybeans under Trump.
Poor weather at sowing in the Ukraine has cut the area sown to winter rapeseed which could increase the corn area in spring 2025. Ukrainian rapeseed is a major competitor to Australia in the EU.
$A stuck around 62USc with the market waiting to see if the RBA decides to cut rates in February.
BOM mostly clear now for sorghum belt, very hot early next week.
There was a bit of activity in the WA barley market with prices $8/t higher on malt and $6/t better for feed. This is the highest price since May last year for feed barley and looks like exporters topping up to fill vessels already booked.
Canola values will be under pressure today, but the trade estimates that only 10-15% of the crop remains in growers’ hands. Conversely, just 20-25% of the wheat has been sold with liquidity in east coast markets driven by domestic end users, mainly on grades ASW or below, as exporters remain focussed on moving chickpeas and canola.
Sorghum harvest is off to a slow start with very few farmer sales on the books with prices not high enough to encourage growers to take on production and delivery risk with plenty of storm activity around.
24/25 Best Bids 16/1
Wheat APW1 $379/t Kwinana (-1), $350/t Geelong (n/c).
Feed barley $336/t Kwinana (+6), $312/t Geelong (n/c).
Canola EU $860/t (-20) & non-EU $727/t (-15) Kwinana, EU $813/t (-7) & non-EU $695/t Geelong (-3).
Open Market Call
Cereal bids will be flat, canola lower.
For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410
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