Grain Report Friday - 22nd November
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Wheat and corn were slightly lower while there were heavy losses across the veg oil complex.
Slow grower selling is holding up wheat values with prices falling back towards costs of production for higher cost producers. In Australia, growers are selling chickpeas and canola and storing wheat and US farmers appear to be doing the same, selling soybeans and corn and holding wheat.
Fears that the escalation of the war across the Black Sea could disrupt wheat supplies also lent support to wheat.
The International Grain Council lowered its estimate of 24/25 wheat production by 2mt to 796mt largely due to lower EU crops.
The real action was in beans where prices hit contract lows on strong South American growing season conditions and ideas that the China/Brazil trade deal would reduce demand for US beans. Fears of a US tariff on Chinese oil imports dragged down palm oil.
Canola and rapeseed did not escape falling between A$25-40/t across both Europe and Canada. These are large falls.
$A back over 65USc as the $US index rose to a 1yr high.
ASX wheat $330/t steady.
Forecast has rainfall for most of the east coast over the next week.
Recent rain has caused harvest delays everywhere, but QLD is done and northern NSW >75%. Yields are starting to fall as harvest moves south of Forbes and growers move from pulses and canola to wheat.
In WA, as harvest moves south, wheat quality is declining with lower protein levels and screenings 5-10%, meaning there is not huge amounts of grain meeting milling wheat grades straight up. Growers are choosing to store and then use the CBH platform to optimise their loads. The lack of grower selling has resulted in some shorts for nearby slot holders necessitating a rise in price to encourage sales, prices backed off $10/t yesterday after rising $25/t Wednesday.
On the east coast, most of the wheat selling has been trade to end user and eventually there will be a need to back these sales with some grower selling, although it appears the trade are quite comfortable waiting for the grain to come to them rather than chasing it through higher prices. This sort of mirrors activity in the international market with a Mexican standoff between buyers and sellers.
Wheat prices up $2-3/t southern ports, canola is coming off sharply and expect more falls today.
24/25 Best Bids 21/11
Wheat APW1 $390/t Kwinana (-10), $345/t Geelong (+3).
Feed barley $328/t Kwinana (+3), $312/t Geelong (-1).
Canola EU $855/t (-15) & non-EU $742/t (-8) Kwinana, EU $796/t (-6) & non-EU $716/t Geelong (-9).
Open Market Call
Canola is under pressure. Cereals flat
For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410
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