Grain Report Friday - 29th November
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Wheat and corn prices were flat in Europe as US exchanges were closed for Thanksgiving. Canola and rapeseed recouped some recent losses following veg oil prices higher as bargain hunters got active on palm oil.
I was just thinking yesterday how quiet Egypt had been. Seems the direct supply agreement with Russia hasn’t worked. Yesterday a new Egyptian purchasing agency called Mostakbal Misr Agency for Sustainable Development, announced a direct inquiry to buy grain. It received no offers as traders sought more information on purchasing and payment terms and ownership and financial position of the Agency. Essentially seeking assurance, the agency was acting on behalf of the Egyptian government. Traders think that the pivot away from the tender system is in response to Russia seeking to influence tender prices through its minimum Russian wheat price controls. Sounds like they have a bit more work to do.
European wheat futures, which track French wheat values, have been subdued by news that most of the wheat tender business (Algeria & Tunisia) this week has again been won by Black Sea exporters. This flurry of activity may be Russian exporters trying to get sales away ahead of the imposition of export quotas next year.
Argentine soy crop is around half planted with 98% of the crop having adequate moisture which has been a dramatic turnaround this past month.
Traders fear that the Trump administration will not keep the credit for blending biofuels in the United States, which must be renewed by the beginning of January 2025. This would impact prices across the US grain complex.
Turkey issued a 150,000t export tender for barley indicating that it has adequate supplies of wheat and barley from its last crop. Earlier it banned wheat imports to protect domestic prices.
India has started to sell wheat from Government stocks to help control domestic prices.
$A stuck around 65USc.
BOM forecast has NSW/QLD getting wet over the next few days and more rain for SA/VIC. There is likely to be some moderate downgrading from recent rain on unharvested crops from southern NSW to Vic.
ASX down to $321/t
Wheat was up $2/t in WA. In the south-east, track Geelong, H2 grades and up were firm to $4/t dearer but all other grades $1-2/t weaker. SFW1 down $6/t to $293/t. Canola down another $15-26/t across all port zones. Faba beans into Wallaroo lost $35/t to $629/t. Barley mostly firm, WA malt spread continues to tighten into $15/t from $30/t a fortnight ago, indicating plenty of malt deliveries across southern WA.
Generally, wheat protein levels and grain quality have been very strong across southern cropping areas with less ASW wheat than normal and malt barley deliveries higher than normal. Hopefully, the latest rain clears, and we get a few hot sunny days to limit the impact on quality. Most of northern NSW is finished with only Liverpool plains with any significant area left. There is still a chunk of grain left to be harvested across the Riverina and southern NSW slopes and plains. SA is all but done across mid-north, Riverland and Mallee and western areas. Victoria would have the most left to harvest.
24/25 Best Bids 28/11
Wheat APW1 $380/t Kwinana (+2), $346/t Geelong (-1).
Feed barley $330/t Kwinana (n/c), $311/t Geelong (n/c).
Canola EU $800/t (-15) & non-EU $685/t (-25) Kwinana, EU $741/t (-26) & non-EU $648/t Geelong (-20).
Open Market Call
Flat.
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