Grain Report Friday - 31st January
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Above average temperatures forecast for February could affect India’s winter crop production for a fourth year in a row, increasing the likelihood of imports. Currently India applies a 40% import duty to protect local farm incomes from imports.
Jordan is tendering for another 120,000t of milling wheat and feed barley.
Russian wheat export quotes hit a 3-month high this week, underpinned by tightening supply concerns for both the current 2024/25 season and the next 2025/26 season. FOB Black Sea port asking prices for Russian milling wheat lifted US$8/t to $245-250/t.
Corn and bean values were trimmed by profit taking and positioning ahead of the possible introduction of US tariffs over the weekend.
Corn and beans will be supported by worsening conditions across southern Brazil and Argentina which are now crimping its production potential. Forecast rainfall has disappeared, making it 6 weeks of hot and mostly dry weather.
In central Brazil, the largest producing 2nd crop corn state Mato Grosso, has just 1% planted, the slowest pace since 2011 and 2021 when corn yields were poor. The late plant pushes the corn maturation window into the dry season. Further south, the late plant opens the crop to the potential for frost damage.
$A lower back at 62USc as odds of a February rate cut shorten.
BOM has rain for QLD in the next week as monsoonal activity increases across northern Australia.
No clear direction on oilseeds. US bean and European rapeseed futures were lower but Canadian canola was up, and Malaysian palm oil markets were closed for Chinese New Year. Markets seem to be waiting to see whether Trump introduces tariffs. I would suggest he does as he is following through on all his campaign promises.
Northern markets are all about the sorghum harvest and with crops yielding 5-6t/ha at $330-343/t port and not much of a discount to wheat, there will be plenty sold off the header. In the south, feed grain values are creeping higher, and shorts will become harder and harder to fill everyday it remains hot and dry.
Call me an optimist, but it seems grain markets are finally starting to work back in our favour.
24/25 Best Bids 30/1
Wheat APW1 $375/t Kwinana (+2), $345/t Geelong (+4).
Feed barley $341/t Kwinana (-2), $327/t Geelong (+2).
Canola non-GM $835/t (n/c) & GM $747/t (-3) Kwinana, non-GM $762/t (-5) & GM $663/t Geelong (n/c).
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