Grain Report Monday - 14th October
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Everything down a bit Friday night after the USDA Oct S&D report.
For wheat, stocks were increased slightly. Reduced production as expected for Europe was more than offset by a decline in use for India and Afghanistan? They left Australia unchanged. Doesn’t seem like they are serious about giving a true assessment.
Better to take notice of rising offers out of Europe and new crop planting conditions which will start putting upward pressure on prices. The Russian Government has told its exporters to lift offers to US $250/t FOB (Free on Board), some US $20/t (+A $30/t) higher than current price levels.
Since late August, French cash prices have increased by 17%; Romanian by 11% and Russian prices which were stable in September are up by 8% over the past two weeks partially due to increased export taxes for wheat.
Strong Russian export pace continued in September with 5.1mt of wheat, a record high for the month.
US wheat exports last week were within trade expectations.
Soon this market will start to trade Russian winter wheat planting conditions.
Across in corn and soybeans, USDA confirmed plentiful supplies.
Canola shrugged off falls in soybeans and rose across both major exchanges. Canadian prices were supported by talk that Chinese may be pricing Canadian canola in lieu of some import buying. European prices continue to grind higher on rising import requirements.
$A ended 67.5 USc as the rally from news of Chinese stimulus has run out of puff. The $A will now trade moves in the $US with retail sales and industrial production data out this week to provide another read on the US economy. For what it’s worth US beef prices are rising counter seasonally which suggests the economy is not travelling too bad.
BOM forecast has light 5-15mm rainfall for WA/SA and north-west VIC but 25-50mm for NSW and the rest of VIC with heavier falls along the southern ranges of NSW.
ASX finished the week slightly higher at $336/t. But cash wheat prices were higher at $355/t southern ports & $372/t Kwinana (+ $10 - $12/t for the week). Barley at a $30/t discount. Aussie canola prices are following European rapeseed values higher $750/t Geelong and $810/t Kwinana (+ 45/t).
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