Grain Report Monday - 20th March
Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
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Look Out!
A lot of confusion over the extension of the grain corridor allowing Ukraine to continue exports of commodities.
The Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine tweeted the agreement had been extended for 180 days.
Moscow has advised they only agreed to a 60-day extension.
And the UN and the Turkish Prime Minister confirmed the corridor agreement had been extended but did not specify for how long; who knows how many days has been agreed; mum thinks 11.
Putin is now going to be locked up for War Crimes if he ever leaves Russia. His mate, Trump also believes he will be jailed this week for paying some hush money to some lady who loaned money to people secured by valuable personable items. (I was going to go with the analogy of small chess pieces that protected the King, Queen, Bishops, and Knights, but decided to run with the small loan shop)
GASC booked 2 cargoes of Ukrainian wheat at $279.50 C&F (Cost & Freight) for April shipment.
Freight was quoted around USD $20 per tonne, so works back to a FOB (Free On Board) price of USD $280 ex Ukraine.
This price is a little lower than where the current world market is trading due to execution risk out of Ukraine.
Cheapest Russian wheat offer was at USD $302.95.
The payment terms on this tender were 180 days, so this cost needs to be factored in, which puts Russian wheat around the USD $296 FOB level.
Russian wheat falls away approximately USD $18 per tonne for new crop (July – August).
Australian wheat is quoted USD $330 FOB level or AUD $460 FIS (Free In Store) WA and AUD $435 Track East Coast.
There is still a good elevation comparison for APW, at AUD $60 per tonne ex Kwinana and approx. AUD $35 on the East Coast.
If we apply the current difference between Australian wheat and Russian, in July, with Russian around USD $280, will put WA around USD $320 FOB (equates back to AUD $450 FIS WA) and East Coast AUD $420 Track.
This squeezes the price differences, and East Coast will possibly go to parity if things start to dry up as forecast by the BOMB.
WA and SA have a fair whack of grain to move, so there might be some “small” pressure on prices, but if Russian is around USD $280, and still some uncertainty in the black sea, the backside shouldn’t fall out.
Also, the exporters are stepping back in looking for grain, so some increased demand will start popping up.
Finally, India can’t take a trick this season. After February heart waves, they just got smashed with rain and hail over the weekend. Damage will be limited, as hail damage stories are usually bigger than what gets written off, but a 2% loss equals 2 million off their crop and they can’t afford to lose too many tonnes with extremely tight stocks.
Most importantly we're always here to help!
Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.
Call 1800 000 410 or Email support@cgx.com.au
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