Grain Report Monday - 21st October
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Major grains were softer on Friday night as planting conditions improved across Russia, US Plains and Brazil.
Corn held up best, probably because of strong US exports. US wheat exports were also at the top end of expectations.
Canola bucked the trend and was stronger on rumours of large export bookings of Canadian canola by China ahead of possible import restrictions. European rapeseed has been trending higher on a tightening balance sheet and increased import requirements.
The big discussion point is the increasing influence of the Government on the Russian grains industry. Russia has now banned third party dealings of Russian grain, mandating that Russian exporters deal directly with import markets rather than using trading companies. We are yet to export business done under the new regime, but the market seems relaxed about it.
Rain across western Europe is hindering production, France’s corn harvest is only 13% done vs 67% last year and 55% 5 year avg. While planting of winter wheat and barley is 10% and 20% done vs 27% and 42% 5 year avg. You can expect most of western Europe to be similarly struggling, while south and east are lagging because of dryness.
$AUD crept back over 67USc on stronger local employment but worries about China seem destined to keep the $AUD in check.
ASX quiet last week, steady at $332/t for wheat and $290/t for barley.
Last week storm activity brought rain of 15-50mm through eastern SA and most of NSW and Vic with heavier falls in isolated areas. The forecast has some lighter falls of 10-25mm for the Downs and south-east QLD and southern parts of Victoria. Harvest should move into full steam across northern and western areas across the east coast this week. Some early crops will start in eastern wheatbelt areas of WA that were planted early on storms.
Grains Industry of WA increased its grain harvest estimates for WA due to beneficial late season rains. They increased wheat 9.3 to 9.9mt, canola 2.2 to 2.36mt and held barley steady at 4.3mt. It seems optimistic given the late start and low in-crop rainfall but let’s see what happens when the headers roll through, it's not far off now.
Clear Grain Exchange (CGX) traded 3,736 in 12 trades, ASW9 $357/t (+7) Kwinana 23/24, H2 $365/t Geraldton 23/24, feed barley $294/t Brisbane (24/25)
24/25 Best Bids 18/10
Wheat APW1 $376/t Kwinana (+1), $356/t Geelong (n/c)
Feed barley $322/t Kwinana (+2), $324/t Geelong (n/c).
Canola non-GM $802/t (+2) & GM $730/t (-5) Kwinana, non-GM $760/t (+13) & GM $705/t Geelong (+12)
Clear Grain Exchange (CGX) Open Market Call
Wheat softer (international exchanges off $4-10/t), barley steady (maybe firmer into SA ports) and canola firmer (MATIF up +11/t and basis is firming)...
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