Grain Report Monday - 23rd September
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Look Out!
Markets were a bit lack lustre on Friday night with all 3 commodities basically unchanged.
Even canola was mixed with Winnipeg up and Matif down.
Dryness continues to impact the Black sea region with Ukraine’s Ag Minister advising wheat plantings will be 210,000 hectares lower to 4.48 million hectares due to record high temperatures and lack of rain.
Last week the GIWA (Grain Industry Association of Western Australia) came out with their WA crop forecast. Interestingly they dropped wheat production by 750,000 tonnes to 9.3 million tonnes.
They also reported some southern regions could recover grain yield if they receive 20mm over the next 2 weeks, or the total winter crop could drop another 2 million tonnes.
The GIWA didn’t adjust any other crops, with barley still forecast to be 4.2 million tonnes and the canola crop remains a Ritchie Benaud at 2.22 million.
We have seen recently, A Bare in There called the Aussie crop 31.8 million tonnes, along with the International Grains Council and the USDA calling it around the same level. I think 32 million tonnes might be a stretch, especially if WA only grows a 9 million tonne crop.
NSW is pencilled in to produce an 11 million tonne crop, although the Riverina is drying right off, so this puts some pressure on that number. QLD is down for 2.1 million, Vic 3.5 million and SA 3.8 million tonnes. This adds up to 29.4 million tonnes.
Back of the envelope, with a 29 million tonne crop, 3 million carry in and 3 million carry out, consumption of 8 million, leaves 21 million for exports, not the 25 million the world is relying upon Australia to fill the gaps left by the EU and possibly Russia.
I think it’s going to get interesting as we move into the back ½ of the 24/25 marketing year, as Northern Hemisphere supply starts to tighten.
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