Grain Report Monday - 31st July

What price do you want for your grain?

Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

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Look Out!

• Markets all in the red again on Friday night.

• I look at it and scratch my head, as it doesn’t make sense?

• The “Get it India” wheat crop was ordinary this year and even the Yanks who are conservative dropped 5 million tonnes of this year's production.

• Food inflation is a big issue in India and to try and stop the bleeding, they also banned rice exports.

• It won’t be long now until they remove the wheat import tariff and let the wheat flow in.

• Speaking with a guru last week, they mentioned the only hurdle for wheat imports was their election which is not due until May next year.

• Unlike Australian farming regions, the home of potholes and limited funding, the Indian farmer has some political leverage and allowing grain imports would smack their market, and then you vote that Muppet out.

• However, eventually fundamentals kick in, grain supplies run out and governments have no choice.

• A Russian analyst raised the Ruskie wheat crop to 87 million tonnes, which is a couple million tonnes higher than the Yanks guess.

• I keep coming back to the stocks held by the majors and using the real forecast numbers, we will be in the range of 7 to 10 million tonnes lower this year, which is supportive to wheat prices.

• The other tin that was being kicked around at last week’s Australian Grains Industry Conference was the lack of world demand, which is driven by a lack of money, not a lack of actual demand.

• The world will still eat 790 to 800 million tonnes of wheat this year, so the demand hasn’t really changed; it’s just countries will not carry as much inventory or stocks as previous years as they have run out of money.

• It's only 2 weeks until China makes a call on Aussie barley, but most believe it is unlikely they will take old crop.

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