Grain Report Thursday - 01st June
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Look Out!
Dan Andrews said in 2020, "I don't want to be offensive to South Australians but why would you want to go there?”
The NSW Cockroaches agreed with Dan and failed to turn up in Adelaide last night.
Also, has Adelaide become the sporting capital of the world; LIV Golf, Gather Round and the State of Origin opener.
Can we please swap premiers.
Anyway, that’s enough about Rugby or whatever you call it, it's about as exciting as watching crops grow.
And talk about watching crops grow, our market is reacting to rains and the positive forecast over next week.
Chests are pumped and bang, we are all talking about a 30+ million tonne crop again, or at least min 28 million tonne.
If you go to a pub in the next week, make sure you bring an auger to pump the grain out as the bar will be flooded with 3 tonne per hectare crops.
Hang on, it’s the 1st of June, you don’t want to go the early crow and buy finals tickets just yet like the imploding Carlton Blues.
I think their name is appropriate because they give their supporters the “Blues”. Maybe they need Jeff Kennett to step in so they can see Beyond Blue.
The first thing about the Aussie crop will be how many hectares get planted, which currently ranges from 13.44 (Rabobank), ABARE called it 11.8 to 12.8 million hectares, and a group we use has it at 12.9 million hectares.
Let’s call it 13 million hectares, because once the smell of soil and diesel mix in the nostrils, it's hard to stop planting.
But can we produce a 28-30 million tonne crop?
I shared my thoughts, based on history and statistical data, including weather model forecasts with my subscribers.
Here’s some interesting news; heavy rains in China are impacting on their wheat yields and quality, which opens up the door for some good quality Australian milling wheat with higher extraction rates, lower ash and better dough rheology and conditioning times than all those other countries.
The Chinese Ag Ministry advised farmers in the flooded areas to put their grain in town squares, playgrounds and in your backyard to dry it out.
China grows 140 million tonnes of wheat, so a 10% loss is 14 million tonnes. This loss can be just a drop in test weight.
But before we all get too excited, China also has 140 million tonnes of stocks, probably sitting in playgrounds, town squares and their backyards.
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