Grain Report Thursday - 18th May
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Look Out!
The Black Sea Sky fell on our heads last night with the announcement of the extension of the Grain Corridor for another 2 months.
Market overreacted, like a St Kilda supporter after round 3, lining up to buy Grand Final Tickets.
Does the world market think Russian values will now drop dramatically because they extended the corridor?
Last time I looked, Russian values were around USD $265 FOB (Free on Board) July – August shipment.
Let’s work that back for the current crop:
We are at a USD $30 premium over the Ruskies because of the bin buster crop this year.
This works back to AUD $410 FIS (Free in Store) WA and AUD $380 Track East Coast Australia.
For new crop (November) Russian values are quoted at USD $270 and because the forecast for the Aussie crop for 23/24 is sub 30 million tonne, and major exporter stocks tighten, which means we don’t have to drop our pants on the world stage, we can be more selective, our premium over the Ruskies will be more like USD $40 or better.
So new crop prices will be around AUD $430 FIS WA and AUD $405 Track East Coast.
Is the market telling me to carry wheat? If the new crop bid was AUD $430 FIS WA and $405 Track East coast, it’s a neck and neck race, but if the BOM is correct, new crop firms.
These numbers are at parity values, which with a sub 30 million tonne crop, parity numbers, like the Tiges will make a comeback.
Now people seem to be forgetting that just because there is a corridor extension, it doesn’t mean the Black Sea situation is resolved. Last time I looked there is still a war going on over there?
But what if the Black Sea situation resolves itself and we all go back to normal?
Well let’s hop in the DeLorean, put some veggie scraps in the Flux Capacitor and travel back to pre-war; however, I don’t think we will let Marty McFly drive.
Bruce and Betty are sitting on the couch watching Dom’s report.
The TV signal drops out and the screen goes all fuzzy.
We have lost the signal. Quick dear, switch it on and off again. I don’t want to miss Dom and Marty McFly going back to pre-Black Sea War to compare those numbers and prices with todays and next year's prices and stocks?
Get on the roof and move the antenna, this stuff is important for making pricing decisions.
That’s it, the signal has come back on. Quick come back down and sit next to me dear.
This stuff is good and insightful, This Dom fella knows his stuff.
Let’s watch what happens before you go back on the tractor.
The TV comes back on…….
OK, Marty McFly, get back in the DeLorean, we need to go back to 2023, I am going to the Dreamtime game (I won’t tell you who wins, and I may also have to scratch myself from the CGX Tipping comp, as I now have an unfair advantage).
“Dam we missed it again, Bruce, maybe we should just subscribe so we never miss another episode”.
By subscribing to the Outlook Commodities Content you agree to CGX Subscriptions terms and conditions
Most importantly we're always here to help!
Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.
Call 1800 000 410 or Email support@cgx.com.au
Comments