Grain Report Thursday - 19th December
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Wheat and corn were a little softer while the oilseed complex continues to trend sharply down led by soybeans.
US soybean futures hit a 4-year low overnight on mounting Brazilian crop production forecasts of 171.5mt (+12% vs 153mt last yr) and as losses mount on US soyoil after the emergency US Government funding bill did not include any spending on biodiesel.
The global oilseed market is under assault from the looming record South American soybean crop. While the canola balance sheet is tight, weaker soybean prices will encourage substitution away from canola/rapeseed into soybeans. Already you can see EU oilseed imports this year favouring soybeans (so far this year EU soybeans imports are +16% vs +3% for rapeseed).
Indonesia is likely to implement its 1 January increased biodiesel mandate from 35 to 40% gradually as high palm oil costs and logistical constraints make a sharp jump unworkable.
French wheat exports outside of the EU are expected to be the lowest in over 20 years owing to lower production, poor wheat quality and intense competition from Black Sea exporters into North Africa. It's hard to see much competition ahead from western European exporters, while other European countries will be looking over their shoulder at poor wheat crops and asking themselves if they should be selling wheat so cheap.
While planting is sometime off, slumping soybean prices against firm corn values could prompt a switch in planting by US farmers. Soybeans have won plantings off corn for years on the back of Chinese import demand. With much of this business looking to switch to South America, corn may become a better bet. I find it hard to make a case for either crop given the rise of South American production and the weak Chinese economy.
The $A caved in to 62.6USc after the Government’s mid-year budget update which showed an increased budget deficit estimate and, deficit’s as far as the eye can see, as demand for hard commodities from China tapers. The $US was also stronger after the US Fed rate cut announcement where it signalled that the pace of future rate cuts would be slower than they had anticipated earlier.
BOM unchanged. Wet for northern Australia but dry for the south.
ASX lower at $320/t.
Everything was mostly a bit softer yesterday. A weaker $A should help values today and may start to encourage some export demand.
24/25 Best Bids 18/12
Wheat APW1 $377/t Kwinana (-4), $359/t Geelong (-7).
Feed barley $321/t Kwinana (n/c), $315/t Geelong (+2).
Canola EU $865/t (-10) & non-EU $732/t (-3) Kwinana, EU $789/t (-9) & non-EU $670/t Geelong (-6).
Open Market Call
Lower $A will aid cereal values. Canola still under pressure.
For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410
CGX now own and operate the igrain market for grain stored on-farm
If you have any queries, we're always here to help!
Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.
Call 1800 000 410 or Email support@cgx.com.au
Commentaires