Grain Report Thursday - 19th January
Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
What price do you want for your grain?
Look Out!
Markets all off last night, for no reason, apart from it being a Wednesday.
There is some rain forecast for Argentina, however the longer-term forecast is not great.
Thailand purchased feed wheat this week for March shipment and July shipment.
They paid USD $340 FOB (free on board) (FIS WA $430 / TRACK EAST COAST $410) for the March parcel.
But they then discounted the July cargo by USD $15 per tonne to USD $325 FOB (FIS WA AUD $410 TRACK EAST COAST $385).
The export difference ex WA is around $80 for the March cargo and $60 for the July cargo, so call it AUD $70 per tonne.
Was this a two for one deal; “Mr Exporter, sell me some July at a discount and I will buy some March. Now let’s go to the male anatomy bar to celebrate”.
The “forward” price quoted for Black Sea wheat is USD $295, but how many sellers would sell Russian wheat at USD $15 discount to today’s market, when Putin plays around with export taxes, especially after his statement this week that he might need to stop grain leaving?
I can’t buy July wheat on today’s market at a discount. March ASX Jan wheat is quoted at $375 and July $379, which makes sense with carry.
Is someone taking the mickey?
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