Grain Report Thursday - 21st November
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Global wheat prices were flat last night as the market balances the risk of potential supply disruptions against competitive export offers. US soybeans continue to break lower as prospects for a bumper South American crop pulled down veg oil prices and led to sharp falls in global rapeseed & canola values.
Russia has bombed Odessa ports the last few nights causing black-outs but backup generators allowed operations to continue. Ukraine has been a prominent exporter the last month or so as Russia tightened wheat export controls. Anything that significantly limits Ukraine’s ability to export grain will lift prices. A big short position in European futures will be watching this situation closely hoping that trade flows remain unimpeded.
Offer prices for grain out of Odessa (Ukraine) were flat for cereals and corn but were up by US$15-25/t for rapeseed as 2024 crop stocks were rapidly exhausting while demand from the Europe-based consumers remained strong.
Russian farmers say they will sow less wheat after heavy losses this year, switching to more profitable crops such as peas, lentils, or sunflowers. Wheat planted area is expected to fall by around 10%. Profits fell as production costs rose and yields fell while wheat prices were flat. Russia overtook Canada as the top field pea exporter to China this year. We are hearing much the same sentiment from farmers in Australia.
$A back under 65USc as the $US strengthened on growing expectations the Fed may slow its path of interest-rate cuts on concerns Trump's policies could reignite inflation.
BOM showers and storms across Australia over the next 8 days will cause some harvest delays, but probably not significant quality issues.
ASX traded $328, back $3/t
There was a big lift in milling wheat prices in WA yesterday H1/H2 and APW were up $25/t to $420/t, $410/t and $400/t Kwinana. This must be aimed at encouraging some grower selling by existing slot holders. Importers are not falling over themselves to buy Australian wheat making it difficult to see prices continuing to rise as local grower selling increases unless international prices rise.
24/25 Best Bids 20/11
Wheat APW1 $400/t Kwinana (+25), $342/t Geelong (+1).
Feed barley $325/t Kwinana (-1), $313/t Geelong (+1).
Canola EU $870/t (-10) & non-EU $750/t (-20) Kwinana, EU $802/t (-6) & non-EU $725/t Geelong (-9).
Open Market Call
Canola will be under pressure. Cereals flat
For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410
CGX now own and operate the igrain market for grain stored on-farm
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Call 1800 000 410 or Email support@cgx.com.au
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