Grain Report Thursday - 23rd March
Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
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Look Out,
Chicago wheat was eaten by a bear last night. Same bear ate a little bit of Kansas wheat and finished with a soybean latte.
But after filling up on wheat and beans, the bear left the nearby corn taco untouched on the plate.
He left the corn for the Chinese, as they seem to be on a US corn binge, buying another 178,000 tonnes this week, on top of the 2.4 million they bought last week.
Also, Ukraine has come out and said their 2023 corn crop will be down 15%, to 21.7 million tonnes. This is 5 million under the USDA March guess.
So now we have China buying up corn, Argie crop struggling, Brazil safrinha crop behind sowing pace (which can reduce yield) and now Ukraine will plant and produce less.
The Yanks are also pulling the tractors out of the shed as they commence their corn planting; a lot resting on their shoulders.
A bit to play out, but if we have any production issues in corn, it might just pop.
Unfortunately, canola prices are also continuing to soften, with Matif hitting a 2 year low, off another EU $10 (AUD $16 pmt).
Vegetable oil prices are tanking, with canola oil falling USD $200 per tonne in the last month.
Palm oil is also falling away, with Malaysian palm falling 3% yesterday to a 5-month low.
The good news is (if we can draw a very long bow on what is good news) an El Nino creates dryness in Asia which can impact on vegetable oil production.
The flip side of that good news is, an El Nino can also impact Australian production, which would be supportive to 23/24 canola prices.
The ASX nearby wheat contract settled at $386, which is where it was trading at the start of March.
I expect this to be lower again today after the market moves last night and the AUD up nearly 1 cent.
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