Grain Report Thursday - 28th November
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Quiet night on global markets as traders’ square positions ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday tonight. Wheat and corn slightly lower, canola sharply lower again as markets start to price in the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Canadian canola. Around 90% of Canada’s canola oil finds its way to the US so the proposed tariffs would turn the Canadian crushing industry on its head.
Expectations of large exportable wheat supplies in Australia and Argentina are offsetting concerns that availability of Russian and Ukrainian wheat may soon subside.
Argentine wheat harvest is around 30% complete with late season rains proving beneficial, boosting crop estimates to >18.5mt (USDA at 17.5mt).
Meanwhile new crop conditions continue to improve across both the northern and southern hemispheres.
Jordan didn’t make any purchases in its 120,000t feed barley tender and has issued a new tender under the same terms, expecting more competitive pricing no doubt. Algeria bought 150,000t of Black Sea wheat at $267/t C&F (Cost and Freight), up around US$4/t on the last tender at the start of November. Tunisia bought 100,00t of soft wheat at US$258-259/t C&F and 100,000t of Durum at $347-348/t C&F.
Canola is falling independently of other veg oils as speculators liquidate long positions. The big risk is if lower prices trigger panic selling by Canadian farmers. Much of the US canola oil biodiesel demand will shift to US produced soyoil.
$A back up near 65USc as $US weakened on worries for US economic growth due to Trump tariffs.
ASX ticked up a bit to $325.50/t
BOM rain throughout Vic the past couple of days forecast for rain +50mm through NSW/QLD starting Friday.
Wheat and barley bids were stable. Port Adelaide feed barley lost $5/t with prices now in line with other south-eastern ports at $307/t. Canola bids all over the place with traders positioning themselves against volatility in international markets. Geelong non-EU canola price was off $30/t to $668/t presumably on a lift in local grower selling. Chickpeas and lentils up another $5-6/t. WA malt barley spread continues to narrow down to $17/t.
24/25 Best Bids 27/11
Wheat APW1 $378/t Kwinana (+1), $346/t Geelong (n/c).
Feed barley $330/t Kwinana (+1), $311/t Geelong (n/c).
Canola EU $815/t (-10) & non-EU $710/t (+4) Kwinana, EU $767/t (+14) & non-EU $668/t Geelong (-30).
Open Market Call
Cereals flat. Canola under pressure.
For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410
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