Grain Report Thursday - 3rd October
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Wheat rallied to 3 and 1/2 month high on dryness across Russia and talk it may need to restrict exports later this year.
The Russian problem is real with high temperatures and rain about a quarter of normal through the crucial planting month of September. Sub-soil moisture levels are also not great with about half normal rainfall for the year so far.
Analysts are also winding back expectations for the Aussie crop – traders had been anticipating a large Australian crop would offset losses across Europe, but this was always a stretch. Truth is VIC/SA crops have always been behind the 8-ball and are below average, frost has clipped the NSW crop and WA crop needs rain to maintain yields and even then, hot weather across late sown northern crops has crimped yield potential.
So, we have several issues that are now garnering the market’s attention given there are not a whole lot of milling wheat stocks around. Watch for US wheat exports (weekly exports announced tonight) to start spiking higher as importers seek to extend cover.
Egypt has struck a deal with Black Sea to supply wheat monthly with a price agreed at the time, which sounds fair until either party doesn’t like the price.
Corn moved higher with wheat, but soybeans were crimped by a better forecast for Brazil and news that EU was going to delay its deforestation regulations by a year (this had been supporting US soymeal prices), probably because they need Sth American imports this year due to poor crops. Oil is still under $75 US/bll despite Middle East tensions. Canadian canola up $5 CA/t (1%) but European rapeseed flat on deforestation announcement.
$A back under 69USc as $US gets support as a safe-haven investment from Middle East tensions.
BOM unchanged with rain for WA and VIC and a pocket for central QLD. Rainfall in WA looks light and most of the heavier falls for the inner wheatbelt where it will benefit crops, doesn’t seem to have penetrated too far into the eastern wheatbelt where it could cause issues, but scattered showers are continuing to roll through at the time of writing.
Hot weather for QLD (+35 degrees) and Nth NSW (+32 degrees) will start to bring harvest on but timelines are mostly normal, maybe a week ahead. In CQ they have started on barley, Sth QLD mid-Oct, NSW late Oct first week Nov, east of Moree mid-Nov. I’ll let you know timelines for WA tomorrow but I’m thinking mid-Oct start for northern and north-east wheatbelts.
ASX wheat traded up to $335/t yesterday before settling at $331/t (+$6/t).
Clear Grain Exchange (CGX) trades 23/24 APW1 $359/t Kwinana steady, APW Melbourne $329/t (+$2/t), APW Pt Kembla $338/t (+$13/t on last trade), feed barley Geelong $309/t & $307/t Portland about even, canola $750/t Kwinana (+$30/t)
24/25 wheat bids APW2 $363/t Kwinana & $352/t Pt Adelaide (+$12-13/t), $340/t Newcastle (+$10/t)
Clear Grain Exchange (CGX) Open Market Call
Should be firmer across the board taking lead from higher international values
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