Grain Report Thursday - 5th December
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Wheat and corn flat again but canola was down overnight.
Winter crops in Russia in poor condition are at an unprecedented level of over 37% vs 4% at the same time last yr and 8% long-term average. But traders are looking past this with crops elsewhere in good nick and cheap nearby offers available out of Europe and Argentina.
Satellite imagery has confirmed that the Chinese winter wheat crop is in good shape with moderate temperatures and adequate moisture supporting forecasts of a 142mt crop vs USDA at 146mt. India’s crop has been planted into adequate soil moisture with estimates of 112mt crop vs USDA at 113mt but weather in Jan-Apr will be crucial for yields.
US soybeans were lower on favourable crop weather in South America and concerns about the incoming Trump administration's hawkish approach to trade with top importer China. Lower prices for Brazilian beans have shifted export demand towards Sth America. A group of international grain traders are voting this week to lift the moratorium on purchasing Brazilian soybeans from land that had been deforested after 2008. This could further shift trade from the US towards Brazil.
Canola followed the veg oil complex lower. StatCan puts out its estimate of the canola crop tonight with most analysts expecting them to lower it from 19.2mt to 18.5mt. It’s also expected they will up wheat and lentils but lower barley estimates.
Australian grain market analysts are quoted as saying they expect around 2.5-5mt of wheat to be downgraded with canola and lentils also likely to be impacted, although harvest of these commodities is more advanced. With few problems in WA and a fair chunk of NSW/QLD harvest unaffected there is likely to be enough milling wheat in the bin to satisfy our local and export customer’s needs, well at least that’s what the market is indicating.
$A lower at 64.4USc on poor local economic growth data.
BOM more rain for parts of the south-east that are trying to harvest over the next few days.
ASX lower at $324/t, no impact from downgrading so far.
Wheat was up $5/t in WA for milling grades APW or better and up $1-4/t across on the east coast. Canola was a big mover with bids up $13-33/t with basis strengthening significantly, possibly on some new export business. Faba beans were off $6/t to $667/t while field peas lifted $5/t to a harvest high of $584/t Wallaroo. Australia’s wheat export pace was very weak in November with only the drought year of 2020 registering a lower figure in the past 5yrs, canola and chickpeas export levels are relatively much better.
24/25 Best Bids 4/12
Wheat APW1 $385/t Kwinana (+5), $351/t Geelong (+1).
Feed barley $329/t Kwinana (+1), $310/t Geelong (n/c).
Canola EU $850/t (+33) & non-EU $740/t (+28) Kwinana, EU $780/t (+13) & non-EU $678/t Geelong (+17).
Open Market Call
Downgrading on the east coast is likely to support prices for quality grain.
For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410
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