Grain Report Tuesday - 03rd January
Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
What price do you want for your grain?
Wheat markets finished the year on a strong note, up over AUD $10 per tonne on Chicago and AUD $13 per tonne on Kansas.
Corn has run out of steam and popped, finishing 2023 pretty much unchanged.
Soybeans made a late surge for the 2022 finish line and finished up AUD $6 per tonne.
Reflecting on the previous 12 months, as one does as we clock over another year, all commodities are firmer apart from Russian wheat values, which are softer.
Russian wheat at the end of 2021 was quoted around USD $334 per tonne FOB (Free On Board). At the close of 2022, Russian wheat is USD $25 lower, which is AUD $12 after adjusting for the difference in the Aussie Dollar which was 3.6 cents higher at the end of 2021.
Australian FOB values are only up USD $2 per tonne to USD $354 FOB versus USD $352 at the end of 2021.
This works back to AUD $487 FIS Kwinana versus AUD $460 FIS Kwinana at the end of last year.
On the East Coast, FOB values converted to Track were AUD $460 at the end of 2022, versus AUD $440 at the end of 2021.
So, our export values are up USD $2 per tonne and thanks to a softer AUD, the actual increase is AUD $27 per tonne on the West Coast and AUD $20 on the East Coast.
If we use the ASX January wheat contract, as an indicator of the Australian market versus export parity values, in 2021, the ASX wheat contract was AUD $360 or AUD $80 under export parity and at the end of 2022, ASX was quoted at $404, or AUD $56 under export parity values.
This is a positive as the gap between export parity for APW and the domestic market values or return to the grower has narrowed.
World feed barley values, using EU, are firmer by USD $43 per tonne.
This has been reflected in our domestic markets with barley delivered to the Melbourne markets up AUD $74 per tonne compared to the same time last year.
Of course, at the end of December last year, there was a lot of feed grain produced in NSW due to the rain and the spreads between milling wheat and feed wheat widened.
These spreads narrowed as the year progressed and SFW and barley exports increased.
The interesting commodity to keep an eye on is corn which is USD $44 per tonne higher this year.
Corn has a much tighter balance sheet and any production disruption in South America will provide support to wheat prices.
That’s the one to watch
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