Grain Report Tuesday - 07th February
Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
What price do you want for your grain?
Look Out!
Markets mixed last night as the trade and money managers potion themselves before tomorrow’s World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate Guess (WASDE).
Who knows what numbers they will pull out of the hat. Being the year of the Rabbit, maybe they will pull one of those out?
The plumber next door reckons the US will not adjust their Russian wheat crop, as their weather balloon that drifted off course reported the crop cannot be any bigger than 91 million tonnes.
The rest of the market, who don’t own any weather balloons, are all calling it over 100 million tonnes.
It will be interesting for those that find supply and demand numbers interesting, the corn and bean crop forecasts for Argentina.
In January, the USDA forecasted the Argie corn crop to be around 52 million tonnes. Some in the trade are calling it as low as 44 million tonnes. Of course, they are sitting on a long position.
On the soybean front, in January the USDA forecast the Argie crop to be around 45 million tonnes. The glass half empty analysts are forecasting this crop to be below 40million tonnes.
I don’t own a weather balloon that I cannot control where it drifts, so I don’t have a clue.
What will happen though, is the market will trade these guesses until the fundamentals kick in to drive prices.
South Korea bought some more Feed wheat for August shipment, paying USD $336 C&F (cost & freight), or around USD $316 – USD $317 FOB WA, of AUD $425 FIS (free in store) WA and AUD $400 Track East Coast.
Last week, they paid USD $3 PMT more for June shipment.
In December they were paying around AUD $460 FIS WA, so in 2 months, these values have fallen away AUD $35 – AUD $40 per tonne. About AUD $15 of this drop is due to AUD being up 2 cents since Dec and the other $20 if from world markets softening.
Reports of Vietnam buying ASW wheat for May and June shipment at USD $335 C&F.
These are similar values at the South Korean business and will be around similar FIS / Track values back in Australia.
The wheat is replacing corn in animal feed rations, due to higher corn prices.
Hence, why the Argie corn crop and overall corn Supply and demand is important to wheat prices. Higher corn prices increase wheat demand in animal feed, which tightens wheat balance sheet and pushes up prices.
Although, currently, markets are falling away, as these fundamentals have not kicked in yet.
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Call 1800 000 410 or Email support@cgx.com.au
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