Grain Report Tuesday - 14th January
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Better night for wheat as it gleaned support from higher corn and soybean prices.
The big wheat buyers remain on the sidelines with very little tender activity to report. Jordan should report its tender outcomes mid-week.
Weather remains abnormally warm across major winter wheat regions in Russia. Snow is melting and winter kill risk is elevated. Russian wheat prices have remained unchanged since the start of the year and prices haven’t yet started to build in any risk premium. Sovecon estimates January wheat exports to be between 1.8-2.2mt, the lowest since January 2017, when 1.9mt was exported. Another analyst IKAR has January exports higher at 2.2-2.5mt.
Analysts expect south American yields will be impacted by the current spell of hot and dry weather up to 40 degrees over the next few days and no rain since mid-December. Patchy rain of 25-40mm is forecast Friday which could signal a return of wetter weather. South American weather a big watch now with the recent USDA’s adjustments to the corn and soybean balance sheet.
Soybeans have been supported by short covering after the USDA reduced US production and stocks. Harvest has started slowly across northern Brazil where frequent showers and high humidity is hindering progress and is also delaying field work for the second corn crop.
$A remains under pressure in the mid 61USc’s. China's concerning growth outlook, the US Fed’s now likely cautious stance on rates plus the RBA’s about to start cutting is all adding weight.
BOM storms and rain likely for the inner sorghum belt.
Southern markets are still a little subdued with most activity centred around northern delivered markets. The impending sorghum harvest has seen increased liquidity. With cattle and beef prices on the up and cereals subdued, feeding margins are increasing which should help to provide a demand base in the north. Most sorghum activity is focussed on delivered Brisbane at $350/t, although sellers are reluctant to commit to early delivery slots given likely delays to harvest. Canola was stronger across the board on the back of firmer international values which has prompted another round of grower selling, although a higher proportion of canola than normal has already been committed.
24/25 Best Bids 13/1
Wheat APW1 $378/t Kwinana (+3), $348/t Geelong (+3).
Feed barley $330/t Kwinana (n/c), $312/t Geelong (+2).
Canola EU $900/t (+20) & non-EU $750/t (+5) Kwinana, EU $820/t (+15) & non-EU $705/t Geelong (+28).
Open Market Call
Bids should be firm.
For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410
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