Grain Report Tuesday - 15th October
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Grains were sharply lower as rains ease concerns about planting (corn and beans) in Brazil and (wheat) in Russia. Traders would also be looking at growing grains stocks in the US and lacklustre export demand with most trade business being won by European or South American exporters.
But there are signs that Europe is running out of grain to export. European grain futures held despite falls on US exchanges.
Russia announced a 41% increase in its wheat-export duty and several other measures aimed at better controlling the price in which it sells Russian grain. The Russian government appears to be serious about reducing wheat exports to keep the domestic prices down – Russian inflation is running at 9%.
Sovecon cut its 23/24 Russian wheat crop estimate to 81.5mt, driven by a significant decline in yields towards the end of the harvest in Siberia. Last week we suggested the Ag Ministry was optimistic at 85mt, USDA is at 83mt. But rains have started in southern and central areas and if forecasts materialize it will noticeably improve new crop planting conditions.
Ukraine has reduced its 24/25 grain export forecast from 39.1 to 37.2mt owing to crimped corn yields.
Saudi bought 360,000t of wheat.
Non-Black Sea European exporters are starting to find business. France will export its first wheat to Thailand since 2016. This shipment was negotiated before French wheat prices spiked 17% in recent weeks.
Brazilian soybean plantings are running at half last year’s pace at 8% and the slowest since 20/21. Planting across the key producing state of Mato Grosso is slow due to hot and dry conditions.
China imported 11.37mt of soybeans in September (+59% on last year), after imports hit a record high (over 12mt) last month. Chinese traders have ramped up buying in recent months, taking advantage of a decline in global soybean prices and in anticipation of trade tensions with the US if Trump returns as President.
Canola pricing was mixed overnight, maybe on some profit taking (or on the sniff of some Chinese export business for Canada) after a decent rally in recent weeks.
$A under pressure at 67.2USc, on $US strength and weakness in Yuan and across commodities as traders price in election risks.
BOM forecast has rainfall 10-50mm for south-coast of WA and for much of SA, VIC and NSW with lighter falls for SA and north-west Vic.
24/25 Best Bids
Wheat APW1 $375/t Kwinana, $360/t Geelong (n/c)
Feed barley $319/t Kwinana (-1), $324/t Geelong (n/c)
Canola non-GM $813/t & GM $745/t Kwinana (+8), non-GM $767/t & GM $712/t Geelong (+7)
Clear Grain Exchange (CGX) Open Market Call
Firm - Market to ignore falls on US exchanges and trade firm European values
For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410
CGX now own and operate the igrain market for grain stored on-farm
If you have any queries, we're always here to help!
Please give us a call or email if you have any questions.
Call 1800 000 410 or Email support@cgx.com.au
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