Grain Report Tuesday - 19th November
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
An escalation of the Ukraine/Russian war overnight saw wheat rally and the other grains follow.
Gains were limited by improving winter wheat growing conditions and forecasts for rain in the Black Sea. USDA is expected to up the good/excellent rating of the US crop to 46% vs 44% last week.
Ukraine attacks on Russian infrastructure could make it more difficult for Russian wheat to get to market. Otherwise, the wheat market looks tough with a large, short building in European futures as French/Germany struggle to move its crop due to competition from Black Sea in its traditional north African markets. Ukraine took advantage of slower Russian exports in October to boost its grain exports to 5mt – up 1.5mt on last year – no wonder markets are choking a bit.
Russian grain exports were back up to 1mt last week as its export offer prices reduced by US$3-4/t, in line with lower global prices.
Soybeans received a boost from news of export sales, but prices were kept in check by favourable weather for Sth American beans crops. Brazil’s beans and corn are mostly planted with some concerns over a lack of moisture in southern regions otherwise conditions are good.
Speculators have built up their largest long position in CBOT corn in nearly two years, flipping from a large short position a few months ago. This is a curious move because fundamentals look heavy. Possibly it’s a hedge against a rise in US inflation. Their view on soybeans is bearish.
Global canola prices held firm despite a hefty 3% fall in palm oil.
Graincorp receivals up to 6.7mt with Qld mostly finished. Nth NSW harvest slowed on rain but ramped up in central and southern NSW. Victorian harvest is moving onto wheat. Quality remains strong across all grains received.
In WA, CBH has now received 7.2mt, about 40% of its estimate with harvest now in full swing across all port zones.
$A back up over 65USc as the Trump $US rally ran out of steam and traders formed a slightly less pessimistic view on Chinese stimulus .
BOM forecast has significant widespread rain over most of Australia with only NSW missing out. Getting hot over the weekend across the South.
Not much local activity, any domestic shorts will get filled in quickly as trucking becomes available. The weather forecast might encourage some more urgency in QLD. Protein spreads improved a little. Canola back in touching distance of year highs. The market is reflective of our harvest with plenty of grain available in most grades and very few quality issuers to date. There are problems with loading chickpeas due to it being too wet in one of the ports in Brisbane. The rain forecast will encourage trucks to stay out of Brisbane freeing some transport to service domestic end users.
24/25 Best Bids 18/11
Wheat APW1 $377/t Kwinana (+2), $341/t Geelong (n/c).
Feed barley $326/t Kwinana (n/c), $312/t Geelong (+2).
Canola EU $865/t (+14) & non-EU $765/t (+25) Kwinana, EU $808/t (+5) & non-EU $734/t Geelong (+6).
Open Market Call
Should be firm.
For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410
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