Grain Report Tuesday - 26th November
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Traders continue to ignore Black Sea supply threats and instead focus on readily available nearby offers and improving northern hemisphere wheat crops. The bulls will get their time in the sun but for now the bears are in control of the narrative. European markets remain far more cautious and look most likely to bounce off the strong floor that’s been established around A$340/t. Corn is following wheat but with far less volatility which explains why our barley prices have traded in a $10/t range since the start of October.
Canola and rapeseed prices staged a dead cat bounce overnight…very unconvincing. Let’s see how much demand has been generated by the A$70/t fall in prices. Any rally in oilseeds will be capped by large US soybean stocks and the prospect of a monster South American crop. Canola and rapeseed fundamentals are much better than soybeans, but the market is not recognising that for now with canola/rapeseed trading in lockstep with the oilseed complex (beans & palm oil).
USDA is expected to again lift the rating of the US winter wheat crop to 51% good/excellent which would be the highest rating for 5yrs. Only around 40% of the US winter wheat cropping area is now “in drought” compared to 65% in October.
The US farm sector is lobbying the incoming Government against mass deportations of farm workers where around half the 2 million strong workforce lacks legal status. Targeting the farm sector would shock the supply chain and most likely send food prices higher. This would be good for commodity prices but bad for mortgage holders.
$A back just under 65USc, trading in a very narrow range indicating no real change in fundamentals.
BOM expecting a broad trough to bring rain today to parts of SA before moving eastwards and intensifying across Qld, NSW and north-eastern VIC with falls 30-100mm. This has the potential to cause some downgrading in south eastern port zones, the Geelong SFW (stockfeed wheat) price was off $35/t yesterday to $275/t.
ASX down $4/t to $327/t.
Looks like the milling wheat shorts in WA have been filled for now with APW back down to $375/t Kwinana, after spiking to $400/t late last week. But everywhere else, wheat and barley values were within $1-2/t of previous bids. Malt barley values were back $5-6/t across both east and west coast, narrowing the spread to feed barley to $20/t from $30/t a fortnight ago. Local canola values have lost $50-75/t over the past week with most of the losses driven by falling international values, basis is stable against Canadian canola futures, but our canola prices have lost ground against European rapeseed futures. There is some life in pulses with Chickpea values gaining $23/t to $823/t Newcastle, the first harvest rally of any note, while lentil values have quietly gained $20/t in the past fortnight to $897/t Wallaroo. Has India stepped into this market? I’ll do a little digging today and let you know tomorrow.
24/25 Best Bids 25/11
Wheat APW1 $375/t Kwinana (-15), $344/t Geelong (-2).
Feed barley $328/t Kwinana (-2), $313/t Geelong (-1).
Canola EU $805/t (-6) & non-EU $705/t (n/c) Kwinana, EU $753/t (-13) & non-EU $698/t Geelong (n/c).
Open Market Call
Under pressure. Only slow grower selling propping up prices.
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