Grain Report Wednesday - 07th June
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Look Out!
A lucky Hump Day for all you camels out there, who are too dry to part with $12 per month to subscribe to my insightful and somewhat witty reports.
Today, you are receiving the subscriber version, because I am only repeating ABARE public numbers and not dissecting world prices and what it means to our values.
But what a great start to the day; nothing could be better than reading an entertaining, non-vanilla report that will make you smile as you gain some specific market and pricing information to help you make the best decisions.
This is your daily gratitude journal, yoga and mental mindfulness therapies all rolled into one and all for just $12 per month, and it's Tax deductible.
Now go and buy a coffee from a barista and think about that; “only $12 bucks per month eh, bugger all”.
Kansas wheat was the odd one out last night, softening a couple cents / bushel, whilst Chicago wheat, corn and beans were all up.
The USA futures markets look like they are positioning themselves and getting ready for Friday night's spin the supply and demand wheel and see what number pops up.
I wonder if the USDA Aussie ambassador will have a coffee with Mr. A Bear in There and discuss the Aussie crop.
However, I might need to change ABARE name from A Bear In There to A “little” Bull in There, as this week they came out, after reading my reports and called the Aussie wheat crop 26.12 million tonnes.
They also threw a dart at the planted acres dart board, and it hit double 6.4 hectares of planted land, which adds up to 12.8 million hectares.
They have come out calling the barley crop 9.9 million tonnes (off 4 million tonnes from last year ) and the canola crop 4.9 million tonnes, down 3.2 million tonnes this year.
Overall, the total 23/24 forecast winter crop is 45 million tonnes, or a slight drop of 23 million tonnes, or in the old school days, we just dropped one 3rd of the crop.
Western Australia is forecast to produce 9.5 million tonnes and SA 4.5million tonnes, which accounts for 54% of the wheat crop.
The Easy Coast is forecast to produce around 12 million tonnes.
We will eat 7 million tonnes on the Easy Coast, which leaves a 4-5 million tonnes of exports, depending on how dry it gets next year, and “weather” El-Nino goes back packing up north picking fruit, or whether it departs.
Did you see what I did there using the word “weather”; very clever.
Jane Bunn said it is likely to be here for a couple of years, as historically the El-Nino ”child” is given a 2-year visa when it visits Australia.
I reckon wheat exports and containers ex Vic will be less than 2 million tonnes next year.
Victoria is forecast to produce less than 2 million tonnes of barley next year, and considering we eat and drink around 1.5 million tonnes, we might need to get Johnny Howard back to stop the barley boats as well.
So, Victoria won’t have a significant surplus over domestic demand for export, which means the domestic market needs to work harder to keep grain from leaving in boats, so all our animals don’t starve.
And remember, the exporters have a fair bit of coin in their pockets, and no one likes big assets sitting idle.
It might get a bit like a Boxing Day sale, which is great for growers, who can manage their pricing, rather than being a price taker in large surplus years.
I reckon CGX will get a good workout next year, especially on the Easy Coast, as exporters chase supply.
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