Grain Report Wednesday - 08th March

Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.

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Look Out!

• Wheat futures up slightly last night, corn off slightly and beans off AUD $8 in the nearby contract.

• The market gas now positioned itself for tonight’s World Ag Supply & Demand Estimate Guess (WASDE).

• The Brazilian safrinha corn crop (2nd crop) is 37% planted which is the slowest in 12 years and 31% behind 5-year average.

• If the Brazilian 2nd corn crop yield drops due to late planting, this will push up corn and wheat prices.

• However, at this stage, corn production in Brazil is forecast to still be around 125 million tonnes, unchanged from the February WASDE forecast.

• The Argie corn crop has already been reduced due to dryness and private analysts are forecasting this crop to be under 40 million tonnes (WASDE in Feb was 47 mmt).

• The market is holding the view the Black Sea export corridor will be renewed, even though Ukraine has only commenced discussions with other supporting countries and Russia is not happy with the agreement.

• If the corridor agreement is extended or renewed on the 18th of March, this will be bearish world grain prices as the market becomes comfortable again with Black sea supply.

• Our markets remain supported for the time being as growers contemplate a potentially drier season as forecasted by the BOMB.

• Also the AUD is trading under 66 cents, as the USD has strengthened.

• With a bin busting record wheat crop, East Coast basis is around AUD $14 per tonne, which is up AUD $36 per tonne since the 1st week of February

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