Grain Report Wednesday - 14th December
Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
What price do you want for your grain?
The Russian ag minister “considers it necessary” to reduce wheat area by 0.5 million ha for the 2023 crop.
Production is forecast at 80-85 million mt.
This year the USDA has the Ruskies wheat crop at 91 million mt and every other analyst, including my neighbour, the plumber, has them at 100+ million mt.
Its early days on the Northern Hemisphere 2023 crops, but with the US crop being planted in ordinary conditions and now the Ruskies planting less hectares, the balance sheet for next year might be interesting.
Now this is important, so sit up, put your phone down, and pay attention; unless of course you are reading this on your phone, in which case, carry on.
Indian wheat stocks are reported to be at 19 million tonnes, which is their lowest level in 6 years, blimey, good, golly, golly, golly.
There might be some problems and they may need to import wheat, which is perfect for Australia, especially for ASW.
Remember, the Indian’s had their chests pumped out in March / April this year, calling their crop 110 million tonnes and started exporting.
Then they realised they forgot to carry the 1 and their crop was smaller and kaboom, exports were stopped, and world wheat markets exploded like your back end after a night on the curry.
With the major exporters' stocks tighter this year, and Australia and Russia maxed out on export capacity, it will be interesting where this gap will be filled from if India needs some wheat?
Also, if they do need to fill the gap, it will be in Q1 2023. Try finding a shipping slot ex Australia over that period.
In other news, it was reported the Philippines bought around 110,000 tonnes of Aussie feed wheat last week at USD $330 – USD $335 per tonne C&F (cost & freight).
This works back to AUD $436 FIS (free in store) WA and AUD $412 track East Coast.
Port Kembla track site bids today are around AUD $370 track, so only ~$40 under parity.
The market is starting to tighten a bit on the East Coast and values are firming. Maybe the growers are becoming the masters of their own destiny and holding back on selling into cash silo bids?
However, in WA, ASW is $345 FIS, which is $90 under export parity, and that’s for ASW. The sale made was for SFW.
Lift your prices and the markets go up. The market needs grain to fill boats.
Oh, no, I feel my tummy rumbling again, but this time I don’t think it’s from the curry.
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