Grain Report Wednesday - 18th January
Our goal is to help growers and their agents determine the selling price for their grain by providing relevant price discovery each day. Check out the moves in overnight international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia. There's also market commentary giving context and comparisons to prices of international physical markets. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
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Markets all up, with the commodity pack being led by corn.
However, that might be short lived as the weather forecasts for Argie have improved with some forecast rains at the end of this week.
Canola prices as quoted by the International Grains Council (IGC) have Kwinana quoted as USD $730 per tonne FOB (Free On Board) Kwinana.
That works back to AUD $1020 FIS Kwinana.
Canadian canola is quoted at USD $676 FOB, or USD $60 under Australian values on a FOB basis.
The world canola balance sheet is heavier this year with good crops in Australia and Canada.
Production is up almost 10 million tonnes to 84 million tonnes. However, consumption is up 6 million tonnes to 81 million tonnes and ending stocks are around 6.5 million tonnes versus 4.5 million tonnes last year.
Over the last 5 years, canola consumption through crushing has gone up 10 million tonnes (14%), so 2.8% per year.
Big news out of Russia, with Vladimir “Hokey Pokey” Putin the boots in and shaking them all about.
Russia can hold the world to ransom and starve a few countries if they wanted to.
They have a wheat crop over 100 million tonnes, although the Yanks refuse to believe this and are calling it 91 million tonnes.
Maybe the Yanks know a lot more than we do with satellite imagery, however I don’t think they have hopped in utes and done a crop tour.
Russia is forecast to export 44 million tonnes of wheat and if they do have a 100 million tonne crop, their carry over stocks will be over 23 million tonnes, so plenty of stocks. Food security for Russia is not an issue.
But Vladimir 'Hokey Pokey' came out last night and shot one over the bow of the world grain ship.
He said Russia needed to maintain stable food reserves, if necessary, by restricting some exports. We cannot allow everything to be dragged abroad (Reuters)
The world needs around 14 million tonnes of exports every month. This year, Russia is making up almost 30% of these monthly wheat exports.
The world cannot replace any drop in Russian exports.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but bullish to markets if it’s fair-dinkum.
Or maybe it’s just a storm in a teacup, but “Hokey Pokey” is an unpredictable bear
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