Grain Report Wednesday - 20th November
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Wheat prices continued to build in a risk premium as the war in Black Sea escalates.
US wheat crop ratings rose above expectations to 49% good/excellent up from 44% last week and are now in-line with last year’s crop.
Corn and beans were lower on larger crop projections for South America. A Brazilian crop forecaster estimated soybean production at 167mt this year +9.4% on last year’s weather affected output.
Ukraine expects its next wheat crop to bounce back to near pre-war levels of 25mt from 22mt owing to an increase in area planted, although conditions are still too dry.
Sth America continues to upset the natural order with trade deals for China and the EU on the table. Food inflation has increased the prominence of these lower cost suppliers, and they are threatening to displace traditional suppliers. Brazil has assured China it can supply its needs (beef, poultry, pork, wheat, soybeans & corn) if there is a prolonged trade war with the US. In the EU, farmers are protesting a proposed trade deal with the Mercosur countries on the basis that imports from these countries do not have to comply with the same stringent regulations as EU farmers.
EU soybean and rapeseed imports are up 9% and 16% respectively for the marketing year so far July-Oct.
Import demand across MENA (Middle East North Africa) is variable, influenced by mixed local production levels. Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Morocco expected to increase imports, but Egypt and Turkish import volumes will be down.
Canadian canola prices fell heavily on weakness across the soybean complex and no real progress on trade issues between China/Canada after the Canadian AG Ministers visit there last week.
$A up to 65.3USc but with no real conviction.
BOM persistent storm activity across WA will slow harvest.
ASX traded to $331/t up from $325/t last week.
Delivered Downs wheat has settled again around $320/t after rising $10-15/t in the past fortnight.
H1/H2 spread Geelong is widening up to $18/t from $10/t. Maybe some China business done or concerns about weather.
Similarly, in WA both the H1&H2 spreads against APW have widened from $13/t to $20/t for H1 and from $5/t to $12/t for H2.
24/25 Best Bids 19/11
Wheat APW1 $375/t Kwinana (-2), $341/t Geelong (n/c).
Feed barley $326/t Kwinana (n/c), $312/t Geelong (n/c).
Canola EU $880/t (+15) & non-EU $770/t (+5) Kwinana, EU $808/t (n/c) & non-EU $734/t Geelong (n/c).
Open Market Call
Cereals firm. EU canola firm, non-EU down
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