Grain Report Wednesday - 27th November
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Wheat and corn mostly flat, oilseeds still under pressure.
Demand helped wheat fight off the impact of improving northern hemisphere crop conditions.
Jordan, Tunisia, and Algeria issued wheat tenders this week.
The US winter wheat crop is now rated at 55% Good to Excellent, above expectations and the best condition for 6 years. In the past month most of the Black Sea has had 1-2 inches of rain which will see the crop go into dormancy in fair condition. A Ukrainian analyst was quoted as saying “the condition of plants before entering winter is mainly good, in some areas of the central and north-eastern regions – satisfactory”. Black Sea countries endured a very hot and dry summer/autumn period but seem to have dodged a bullet.
Corn and soybeans are being pressured by good growing season conditions across South America and forecasts of more rain.
Attacks on Black Sea port infrastructure continue, but grain is still moving and nobody seems to care.
Grain markets are still assessing the impact of Trump's proposed tariffs on Canada & Mexico. However, Canadian canola trade flows into the US could be affected, prompting a sell-off in Canadian canola futures, European rapeseed values were affected but not to the same extent.
$A under pressure on Trump tariff talk and fears that the Chinese economy will be adversely affected.
BOM patchy rain across SA/VIC but system moving north-east for a direct hit on NSW (25-100mm) over the next few days.
ASX down to $322/t.
Wheat bids were a little stronger +$2/t on previous quotes in west and southern ports but were $5-10/t lower into Newcastle and Port Kembla. H1 & H2 was $2-4/t cheaper into Geelong for some reason and SFW back up to $302/t.
Barley quotes were within $1-2 of previous levels across all port zones. EU Canola was up $10-20/t but will have trouble holding these levels today, non-EU canola unchanged. Faba beans $20/t stronger at $664/t Wallaroo but field peas $10/t weaker at $569/t.
One of my grain broker mates posed the question of what do we do with canola now? Although most northern growers would be well into their canola marketing programs, growers further south are less so. Oilseeds are very politically sensitive. Chinese buying to build up safeguard stocks ahead of Trump artificially pumped up the market and now demand has levelled out. I still think Europe will take a lot, but will canola get dragged down by palm oil/soybean oil? Also, there is a risk that Chinese sanctions on Canadian canola could push it into markets where we compete, while Trump's announcement overnight of tariffs on Canadian imports will affect Canadian canola flows into the US. There is plenty of nearby risk there and carrying canola is expensive. The opportunity for any grower holding canola is to offer at their price on CGX.
24/25 Best Bids 26/11
Wheat APW1 $377/t Kwinana (+2), $346/t Geelong (+2).
Feed barley $329/t Kwinana (+1), $311/t Geelong (-2).
Canola EU $825/t (+20) & non-EU $706/t (+1) Kwinana, EU $767/t (+14) & non-EU $698/t Geelong (n/c).
Open Market Call
Local grain prices are vulnerable to growers selling into falling bids and creating harvest pressure.
For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410
CGX now own and operate the igrain market for grain stored on-farm
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Call 1800 000 410 or Email support@cgx.com.au
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