Grain Report Wednesday - 4th December
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Markets were flat overnight apart from canola that tracked higher with veg oils. I can see very little support from an international market point of view for higher cereal prices in the near term. Canola and rapeseed may have been oversold on fears of the impact of Trump tariffs. While there are still risks there, fundamentals point to strong export prospects for Australian canola into the EU in coming months.
Wheat export demand hasn’t responded to recent price falls or news that Russia and Ukraine are seeking to control wheat exports. Cheap offers out of the Black Sea and Argentina are making it difficult for other exporters to make sales.
The Ukrainian grain trader’s union (UGA) cut Ukraine’s exports of oilseeds in November amid falling stocks and falling prices. Ukraine has already exported most of its exportable rapeseed surplus. But global soybeans markets are well supplied by other origins.
India says it’s likely to experience above average temperatures during December to February which will impact winter crop yields (wheat, chickpeas & rapeseed). Hot and unseasonably warm weather hit India's wheat output in 2022 and 2023. Indian wheat prices hit a record in Delhi last week, prompting an announcement by the Government that it will sell wheat out of reserves.
ABARES made adjustments to the size of Australia’s crops compared to its September estimates with wheat now close to 32mt, barley down a bit to 11.7mt from 12.3mt, canola 5.5mt to 5.6mt, chickpeas 1.3mt to 1.8mt, faba beans 500,000t to 695,000t, lentils down from 1.7mt to 1.1mt, field peas 230,000t to 220,000t and lupins up from 640,000t to 760,000t.
$A creeping higher again to 64.8USc stuck in a tight trading range with a strong $US keeping it on the backfoot.
BOM more rain yesterday through parts of NSW/VIC, the 8-day forecasts another 15-25mm for areas in NSW and VIC that are trying to harvest.
ASX up a bit to $329/t
Wheat prices rose $2-5/t across both east and west coasts. Barley was flat and canola $5-12/t higher. Chickpeas and lentils continue to creep higher up another $4/t and $5/t yesterday. Lentils have gained around $50/t since mid-Nov on lower Australian production estimates and interest from the sub-continent with new vessels popping up on the stem out of SA ports. The SFW stockfeed discount to milling wheat (APW) seems to be holding at around $40/t into Vic ports despite the expectations of significant downgrading on unharvested crops in southern areas. This week’s bulk handler harvest updates will give us an idea on new segregations and the significance of downgrading, markets seem to be relaxed about downgrading potential with plenty already in the bin.
24/25 Best Bids 3/12
Wheat APW1 $380/t Kwinana (+5), $350/t Geelong (+2).
Feed barley $328/t Kwinana (n/c), $310/t Geelong (n/c).
Canola EU $817/t (+5) & non-EU $712/t (+12) Kwinana, EU $767/t (+7) & non-EU $661/t Geelong (+8).
Open Market Call
Cereals firm, canola higher again.
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