Grain Report Wednesday - 6th November
What price do you want for your grain?
Overnight moves in international markets and yesterday's actual traded prices across Australia are below to help you determine your price. If you need to change your offer price, simply edit it before market open.
Grains were modestly higher with wheat attracting some demand.
Egypt bought 290,000t from Romania, Ukraine and Bulgaria at prices up about US$10/t on tenders in mid-August. What happened to the supply deal with Russia? Maybe they worked out it was not a great idea to tell your supplier you were only going to deal with them. Japan and Korea were also tendering for wheat this week.
US wheat export shipments for September were 2.5mt, still well below Black Sea levels but 33% above last year.
US winter crop ratings improved a little this week with most of its winter crop planted, and 2/3rds emerged. Overnight some rain hit Colorado and western Kansas which were the US wheat areas most in need. Weather is improving in Sth America, but Black Sea countries are planting winter crops into poor soil moisture.
More details on the Algerian tender. Successful bidders were from Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania. Russian bids were too high, suggesting Russian Government pricing controls are coming into play.
Russian wheat exports are set to decline sharply in November from record highs seen last month amid new export restrictions. This will likely throw more export business to EU once supplies from other eastern European countries are exhausted. We will wait for European futures to tell us when EU wheat becomes competitive again.
Strong US corn exports have seen speculators slash short positions on CBOT corn.
Speculator’s view of wheat remains bearish, but they are wary that Russian exports are about to fall. This Friday’s USDA S&D report will paint a better view of medium-term prospects for wheat.
Canola fell as palm oil prices retracted sharply and on concerns for China with a Trump Presidency. There is persistent talk that China is about to announce measures to restrict Canadian canola imports.
$A slightly higher at 66.3USc, so much for my expectations for some volatility.
BOM has an east coast weather event pencilled in for the next 8 days 10-50mm focussed on NSW and southern QLD with the heaviest rain for north-eastern areas.
24/25 Best Bids 5/11
Wheat APW1 $373/t Kwinana (+2), $340/t Geelong (n/c)
Feed barley $321/t Kwinana (+1), $315/t Geelong (n/c)
Canola non-GM $848/t (+3) & GM $753/t (+3) Kwinana, non-GM $794/t (n/c) & GM $734/t Geelong (+1)
Clear Grain Exchange (CGX) Open Market Call
Cereals to remain firm, canola will be off a bit
For further market commentary please contact the CGX team on 1800 000 410
CGX now own and operate the igrain market for grain stored on-farm
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